Day: 30 July 2014

The national picture shows that over the year listenership to radio slipped by one point to 83% or 2.9m people daily. In fairness it’s marginally ahead of the previous survey (Q1) by some 13,000 listeners. National radio listenership is up by 22,000 in the twelve months and home local stations dropped by 51,000.

Looking at the individual stations the big performer again this survey was Newstalk adding 77,000 listeners (+27%) to bring them into double digits and 365,000. Had the numbers been a little kinder to them they could have leaped to third spot in the national rankings as 2FM are only 1,000 listeners ahead and if the trend continues might fall a place in the next survey. Much of Newstalks increases are down to the morning schedules – primarily Pat Kenny and Breakfast – the latter now being the most listened to slot on the station.

Today FM also made some gains rising to 458,000 listeners or 13% and it Newstalk and Lyric were the only stations to see an increase in listeners over the year. Radio 1 fell by 15,000 but still leaves them at a comfortable 24% reach (849,000) way ahead of its nearest rival Today FM. 2FM continued on its downward trajectory coming in at 366,000 (10%) and Lyric added a healthy 19% to finish at 138,000 (4%).

Station	14Q2			13Q2			+/-	+/-	+/-
Any Radio	83%	2982		84%	3012		-1%	-30	-1%
Any National	46%	1641		45%	1619		1%	22	1%
Home Local Station	42%	1497		43%	1548		-1%	-51	-3%
Any RTE Radio	34%	1216		34%	1229		0%	-13	-1%
Any RTE1/2FM/Lyric	33%	1195		34%	1210		-1%	-15	-1%
RTE Radio 1	24%	849		24%	864		0%	-15	-2%
Today FM	13%	458		13%	449		0%	9	2%
RTE 2FM	10%	366		11%	382		-1%	-16	-4%
Newstalk	10%	365		8%	288		2%	77	27%
Other Regional	7%	266		7%	269		0%	-3	-1%
RTE Lyric FM	4%	138		3%	116		1%	22	19%

To get a clearer numerical picture over time I’ve added the table below showing the last four surveys. Radio is a movable feast so it’ s good to keep an eye on the rolling surveys as well as the current one.  

	14Q2		14Q1		13Q4		13Q3
Any Radio	2982	83%	2969	83%	2972	83%	2995	83%
Any National	1641	46%	1618	45%	1632	45%	1624	45%
Home Local Station	1497	42%	1491	42%	1488	41%	1523	42%
Any RTE Radio	1216	34%	1217	34%	1232	34%	1231	34%
RTE Radio 1	849	24%	845	24%	849	24%	861	24%
Today FM	458	13%	442	12%	461	13%	457	13%
RTE 2FM	366	10%	376	10%	394	11%	384	11%
Newstalk	365	10%	334	9%	315	9%	294	8%
Other Regional/Local Station	266	7%	261	7%	264	7%	269	7%
RTE Lyric FM	138	4%	128	4%	127	4%	120	3%

Below are the numbers but graphic form giving a better picture of the overall trend in National Radio. I’ve added an indexed graph in the last tab to show the major radio groupings and how they have fared over the past twenty two surveys. It’s an interesting take on the radio landscape showing that National and Home Local stations have their work cut out for them and the non-national group is being strengthened by modest increased in Regional and Multi city listenership.

[module-293]

Market Share

Moving to the market shares it shows the dominance of RTE1 in the market being close to fourteen share points ahead of Today FM. The national broadcaster did drop share during the year being picked up by Today FM and Newstalk who grew their share to 9.2% and 6.1% respectively. The share is interesting as it shows that there is a credible alternative to the nationals in the home spun stations who collectively have a share of 38.4% as opposed to 47.1% for the nationals.

Station	14_2	13_2	+/-
Any Radio	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%
Any Region/Local/M-City	52.9%	53.0%	-0.1%
Any National	47.1%	47.0%	0.1%
Home Local Station	38.4%	39.2%	-0.8%
Any RTE Radio	31.9%	33.0%	-1.1%
Any RTE1/2FM/Lyric	31.2%	32.4%	-1.2%
RTE Radio 1	22.7%	23.4%	-0.7%
Today FM	9.2%	9.1%	0.1%
RTE 2FM	6.6%	7.3%	-0.7%
Newstalk	6.1%	4.8%	1.3%
Other Regional/Local Station	4.8%	4.9%	-0.1%
RTE Lyric FM	1.8%	1.7%	0.1%

The pie graph above would make more than 100% (for a variety of different reasons) but it serves to illustrate the two dominant forces in terms of market share – National and home local. As does the graph below, which charts the market shares of the various stations over the past five years to give you a better picture of where the stations are going trend wise

To see how the stations manage to win their share and reach you have to look at the constituent parts of each station measured against each other. In this illustration the first tab 07:00 to 23:00, showing the day as a whole looks very much like an unfair fight with RTE dominating by a stretch up to the late evening.  The final tab is another interesting take showing the quarter hours for the major players and the grouped home local stations – puts the power of local into perspective.

[module-292]

In the immortal words of Magnus Magnusson “I’ve started so I’ll finish’ so I’ll turn again to Pat Kenny. I’ve tracked his potential listenership over the year to try and get a jump on proceedings and below is that analysis (you can look back over previous surveys to see the methodology and finer detail). With Pat at 134,000 at this late stage (with only two months left for a full year in Newstalk) it would suggest that the out turn for the year would be between 137,000 and 150,000. I thought that he’d be kingpin in the station by now and I was slightly blindsided with Newstalk Breakfast taking top spot this survey (147,000) – and no disrespect to the Breakfast show in that.

The capital’s fortunes changed in this survey following twelve successive surveys of either stagnation or decline with Dublin radio listenership gaining a point to 80% bringing listenership to 810,000 on an average weekday (67% and 60% on Saturday and Sunday respectively for the overly curious). But beneath that figure lies a tangles web of thirteen stations whose fortunes were varied over the year.

For illustrative purposes I’ve added a table this time around showing the all the stations results over the last four surveys as well as a year on year comparison. I stick with the year on year for comparative purposes but it can get a little confusing discussing the long and the short term surveys. Anyway it’s probably only fair to see the numbers laid bare to spot any emerging trends.

Not unlike the National picture Newstalk made the big gains adding 23% to their listeners bring them to 150,000 and helps it to root itself firmly into third spot after RTE1 and FM104. Newstalk performs well in the metropolis with just under half their listeners turning in from Dublin. (Interestingly Radio1, Lyric and Newstalk have each 41% of their total listenership residing in Dublin. On the other hand 2FM is only boosted by 19% and Today FM by 18% by the Blues listenership).

Year on year RTE1 is down slightly to 278,000 but, as you can see from the graphs below, they are on an upward trajectory. FM014, Spin and Q102 all lost listeners over the twelve months, but on a survey on survey basis the picture wasn’t so bleak. Nova, Lyric, Classic Hits and Sunshine all had some great gains (albeit on a small base) and would seem to be eating away at some of the larger stations survey after survey.

	14Q2		13Q2		+/-	+/-
Any Radio	810	80%	817	81%	-7	-1%
RTE Radio 1	278	27%	284	28%	-6	-2%
FM 104	185	18%	225	22%	-40	-18%
Newstalk	150	15%	122	12%	28	23%
Spin 1038	136	13%	131	13%	5	4%
98FM	101	9%	87	9%	14	16%
Q102	91	9%	95	9%	-4	-4%
Today FM	81	8%	76	7%	5	7%
RTE 2FM	70	7%	66	7%	4	6%
RTE Lyric FM	57	6%	43	4%	14	33%
Radio Nova 100FM	55	5%	43	4%	12	28%
Classic Hits 4FM	36	4%	25	2%	11	44%
Sunshine 106.8	35	3%	29	3%	6	21%
Phantom 105.2FM	18	2%	17	2%	1	6%

Top slot still goes to RTE1 who hold a dominant position at 278,000 listeners (27%) and are perused by FM104 at 185,000 (18%) having lost 40,000 listeners over the year. They in turn are being chased down by Newstalk on 150,000 (15%) who have narrowed the gap between them to 35,000. Not that their fighting for the same cohort of listener but the prize of second spot is very much up for grabs in Dublin. Today FM stabilised in the capital on 81,000 (8%) after successive surveys of either decline or small to no gains.  

	13Q3		13Q4		14Q1		14Q2
Any Radio	809	80%	803	79%	804	79%	810	80%
Any Region/Loc/M-C/D-C	472	47%	452	45%	459	45%	469	46%
RTE Radio 1	286	28%	286	28%	275	27%	278	27%
FM 104	207	20%	196	19%	194	19%	185	18%
Newstalk	122	12%	128	13%	137	14%	150	15%
Spin 1038	135	13%	127	13%	129	13%	136	13%
98FM	81	8%	85	8%	88	9%	101	9%
Q102	97	10%	87	9%	89	9%	91	9%
Today FM	77	8%	81	8%	74	7%	81	8%
RTE 2FM	66	7%	72	7%	71	7%	70	7%
RTE Lyric FM	49	5%	55	5%	54	5%	57	6%
Radio Nova 100FM	47	5%	50	5%	59	5%	55	5%
Classic Hits 4FM	29	3%	31	3%	32	3%	36	4%
Sunshine 106.8	30	3%	33	3%	34	3%	35	3%
TXFM	17	2%	15	1%	15	1%	18	2%

For a “holistic” view of the Dublin market you can cycle through the graphic tabs below which show the total radio reach and then the individual stations by their reach in thousands and percentage reach. If nothing else it clearly shows the rise of Newstalk on the back of signing Pat Kenny.

[module-289]

Market Shares

Dublin market share is dominated by RTE1 at 34.1% with a twenty two point gap between it and FM104. Newstalk made good gains adding two points to a 9.7% share. Q102, Spin and Today were all down as was 98FM. Nova, Lyric, Sunshine and Classic Hits also gaining ground.

Station	14Q2	13Q2	+/-
RTE Radio 1	33.40%	33.60%	-0.20%
FM104	11.60%	14.10%	-2.50%
Newstalk	10.00%	8.20%	1.80%
Spin 1038	7.10%	7.10%	0.00%
Q102	6.90%	8.60%	-1.70%
Today FM	6.10%	5.70%	0.40%
98FM	5.90%	5.90%	0.00%
RTE 2FM	4.90%	5.20%	-0.30%
Nova 100FM	3.90%	3.70%	0.20%
RTE Lyric FM	3.20%	2.20%	1.00%
Sunshine 106.8	2.50%	2.50%	0.00%
Classic Hits 4FM	2.30%	1.90%	0.40%
TXFM	1.30%	0.90%	0.40%
Other	0.80%	0.30%	0.50%

The only way to look at the shares are two fold: Dublin in full and then ex-RTE so you can see what’s happening more clearly without the dominance of the national station. 

[module-294]

Within any reach figure there’s a story. It’s the one behind the scenes and hopefully the graphs below capture some of what’s happening. Like above, with thirteen stations it’s a tangled mess so I’ve divided it into Dublin “A” and “B” to give you, hopefully, a clearer picture. Each line tells its own story but something that struck me was the Newstalk journey throughout the day (among others).

Breakfast has a huge spike just after eight and then dies off rapidly only to be resuscitated at ten by Pat Kenny. There’s a odd undulating pattern to his listenership with people diving in and out seemingly. Then at the stroke of twelve all hell breaks out and there seems to be mass defection – but not to another station by the looks of things. I’ve looked at these patterns nationally as well and they can be found in the Station Programmes bit. 

[module-290]

At his point I’m beginning to hear the lyric in The Smiths What Difference Does It Make? –  “Oh, the devil will find work for idle hands to do”! But, before I descend to my fiery pit, below I have shown how each station has performed against previous surveys across the day (14Q2 V 13Q2 and 12Q2). For consistence and to be able to digest it quickly: the red line is always current survey, blue ’13 and green ’12. I’ll refrain from comment as that level of detail would be too much and each will have their own opinion (which you can share with the group below if you are part of the Disqus Comment family).  

[module-291]

Honest – finally; I just thought this paints a interesting picture in Dublin